Ramblings of Abufaris

IT’S a naked power grab out there,” my friend said as he dragged on his cigarette. “No one’s in charge and there’s no over-arching strategy – everyone’s just trying to figure out an angle and stake a claim for the future.”

With Umno diminishing day-by-day – witness its recent lacklustre 62nd anniversary and the Barisan Nasional languishing in its shadows – once-peripheral players are beginning to assert themselves.

Unsurprisingly, it’s getting harder to “interpret” political developments, and my cigarette-smoking friend’s world-weary cynicism may well appear to be the best reading of what’s going on.

There are lurches to right and left – moves to restore the credibility of the judiciary that are then undermined by a spate of incomprehensible sedition charges that only serve to compromise a security apparatus that we had thought was supposed to be in the process of being cleaned up.

Back in the 80s and 90s we “knew” that events were being driven from above – that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad mainly (and then occasionally Tun Daim Zainuddin or Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) were the “game-players”.

They were the latter-day dalang or puppet-masters – directing policy-making, creating billionaires out of lowly managers and accountants, dispensing favours and issuing instructions.

They also destroyed and – with equal verve – removed political opponents and overturned state governments.

Well, that was the past.

Nowadays we can no longer look to the Umno elite and expect to understand what’s going on. The disorder we’re experiencing – the Indonesians would call it zaman edan – is just that: random and inexplicable.

There is no logic to any of it save that individuals are seeking to stake a claim to the future; just hear MCA vice-president Datuk Ong Tee Keat’s recent public statements on multi-racial politics.

So how do we interpret all these random events? How do we make sense of them and place them in their proper context?

Let me tell you about the factors I’m watching at the moment and why:

Firstly, I’m keeping an eye on Sabah leaders. If we accept the idea of Sabah and Sarawak as the “fixed deposit” for the Barisan Nasional administration then it pays to understand how one key community perceives the current political situation.

The Kadazans – most of whom are Christian – have been among the most poorly treated of all Malaysia’s minority communities. By dint of long-term Federal connivance the Kadazans have been turned into second-class citizens in their own state.

And now with the rise of Islamic conservatism, Malaysia’s largest Bahasa Melayu-speaking Christian congregation, the Sidang Injil Borneo (with well over half a million followers in Sabah and Sarawak alone) is now experiencing an unpleasant push on their religious freedoms albeit ameliorated by a recent court decision to allow judicial review of the use of the word “Allah”.

If Anwar’s ambitions of becoming Prime Minister are to materialise, he will need to win over this embittered community and their frustrated leadership.

Upko chief Tan Sri Bernard Dompok and PBS head Datuk Seri Pairin Kitingan remain deeply sceptical of Anwar. Still it would be unwise to underestimate Anwar’s powers of persuasion. If men like Pairin change their views, power in Putrajaya may also shift.

Secondly, the Malay rights debate. Contrary to what the participants in the recent Kongres Permuafatkan Melayu think, this is a non-issue. With well over 60% of the national population the Malay-Muslim community dominates Malaysia’s public life whether through Umno, PKR or PAS.

At this stage we cannot be certain which of the three parties will prevail, but whatever happens I’m sure Malaysia will remain a fairly conservative, majority Muslim nation-state with a strong Malay cultural milieu.

It’s foolhardy to think that the Malay community has suddenly changed; if anything it is just fragmented.

Still, this fact seems to have escaped DAP chairman Karpal Singh in particular and a number of his party leaders who continue to harp on about a “Malaysian Malaysia” whilst being unable to win over any prominent Malay figures into their party.

Certainly the position of party adviser Lim Kit Siang would be greatly enhanced if he had some heavyweight Malay party members alongside him.

PAS’ studied silence on this issue meanwhile, is an indication of the inherent complexity. Frankly they’d rather not be drawn into the debate.

However, it has to be said the politician who can take charge of this issue, energise the community and show a capacity to lead will in turn be able to claim the mantle of Malay leadership.

In this respect Umno’s top brass have been totally unimpressive. Their regressive appeal to the royal houses accompanied by primordial cries of “ketuanan” (supremacy) are only serving to divide the Barisan.

Still, both Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Anwar have attempted to articulate progressive alternative visions and it will be interesting to see the extent to which these ideas take root.

Thirdly, is the deteriorating economic environment. With prices of household goods rising almost daily, the Government is finding it ever more difficult to shield the population from the impact of global inflation.

If this continues the Prime Minister’s prospects are not good.

The unhappiness that’s currently being felt in the socio-political sphere will inevitably seep into the broader population, creating a receptive ground for small-scale, localised demonstrations such as the recent anger over the toll roads.

As these gather in intensity and frequency, the Government will be hard-pressed to manage the situation.

So, take your ringside seat at the new spectator sport that is Malaysian politics. Suspend your incredulity and shock if only for moment. Yes, these men and women are our leaders – we elected them.

Maybe you’ll need some stronger than a cigarette now?

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 14th, 2008 at 6:11 pm and is filed under Gempa. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.